Hizballah drone attacks target Israeli armored vehicles on eve of ceasefire, with Jon Elmer

we are going to check in on Lebanon and the Lebanon ceasefire which I said off the top um is a word uh that Israel has removed meaning from ceasefire because they continue to fire during the ceasefire um unifil pointed out um at the end of the first week that there had been approximately 100 ceasefire violations by the Israelis um and after the H 100th uh U ceasefire violation hasbalah fired two rockets at um at the occupied Sheba Farms which is so targeting U the occupied Sheba Farms rather than actually targeting inside Israel so Hezbollah that was a warning shot by Hezbollah they are adhering to the ceasefire um Israel's not Israel can't occupy they can't Advance um and they can't handle a wider War so what they're doing is moving uh this battle from what they couldn't achieve on the battlefield um to change the condition and try to achieve it under a ceasefire we'll look at this first map here that tomorrow will pull up um and even Amos Hawkin who is the UN Envoy said that um the Israeli positions are 1 to two kilometers from the border and that these forces will pull out within days so this is the IDF map that they released um showing The Villages uh this is these are the villages that they're not allowing people to return home to Israel is not allowing people to return home uh because their people in the north aren't returning home um as I reported earlier in the war and has been reported a number of different ways I showed you with the 60 Minutes video where they went into Matula um but the settlement uh committees themselves believe that as many as 40% of people aren't going to return um to their Northern settlements whereas the Lebanese the moment the ceasefire went into effect at 4 in the morning the roads were filled with cars traveling back down south and that was the same in 2006 they immediately went home and that was a source of Pride for the Lebanese in 2006 after the July War um that how fast they they they got home after the end of the war I was reporting uh from there at that time and people would like call off their balcony to me like tell them that we were back at 11:00 a.m. you know someone would the next down the road would say we were got there at 10:45 people just proud to be able to return immediately to their homes and this is something that bothers Israel because their people aren't going to return to their homes so they're carrying out these um this ceasefire which is to last 60 days it's now one week into the ceasefire this is the moment that Israel is supposed to be pulling uh its first troops uh back from the border they've killed 15 people at least since the ceasefire uh went into effect and um and they've carried out over 30 air strikes and they write about this in their field reports this isn't um that you can just read it from the Israelis they write about their violations uh of the ceasefire so taking a look at this map 16 let's look at the next map and actually see what Israel was actually able to uh accomplish on the battlefield the dark blue in this map is inside Israel the powder blue the light blue uh that is the area that they attempted to capture in almost all cases were unable to capture because if we flip to the next one tomorrow you can see I focused in on this this is first of all by Israeli allies this is the institute for the study of War and the American Enterprise Institute these are right-wing think tanks uh aligned with the Israelis and look at what the asterisk says assessed advances are areas where the institute for the study of War uh assess forces have operated in or launched attacks but do not control so even those little blue area the light blue areas they don't actually control that area uh according to their own uh Allied think tanks so when you compare it with that map before it of what Israel is attempting to take now Israel is now since the ceasefire has been put into place Israel's moving forward into territory that they could not capture on the battlefield and that is the the first week of this ceasefire with scare quotes uh I called it an uneven ceasefire um you you can call it whatever you like but at this point is very tenuous ceasefire that Israel is using um to capture more territory that they couldn't capture uh on the battlefield and if we look at the next map we can see the um we can see the P legal Panhandle uh which runs up um North there you can see along the Blue Line the light blue lines are those Villages are right on the border um and you can see about Midway up that's the Lani River that's where Israel believes that according to their ceasefire they're going to push Hezbollah behind the Lani River that is not going to happen because you can see where uh Israel actually controls a tiny strip along the border that will allow them to reinforce the border and maybe move their people home um but they're not going to achieve uh pushing Hezbollah beyond the Lani River when they're only one kilometer across the border and again the blue is inside Israel so these aren't even um these these aren't even close to the Israeli map um but the Israeli military they went and did a photo at as soon as the ceasefire went into effect the Israelis moved forward to the Lani River there you can see the Lani running across and you could see how at the top on the right hand side the Lani river is very close um to the Israeli Border in that spot it's only about 4 km from the border in that spot but Israel couldn't get those 4 kilometers in battle if you move down to the South the Lani river is 40 kilometers from the border but where it begins at the arch at the top of the Panhandle it's only 4 kilometers so the moment the ceasefire went into effect they sent a unit over to take photos of them walking along the Lani so that they could show their population look we made it to the Lani when clearly they didn't because you can see karala that's a village that I showed you operations they were unable to capture karala in right it's connected to the border and they were unable to capture it in 71 days of battle um this is the Israeli military spokesperson framing their ceasefire the Air Force will continue to fly over lebanon's Skies collecting intelligence and are prepared to operate wherever necessary uh hagari says in the coming weeks the IDF will shape its defenses on the northern border and Implement lessons from the past so openly uh describing a ceasefire as offensive actions uh collecting intelligence using the fact that hasbalah is adhering to the ceasefire uh to to to gather intelligence um and they said their stats from this operation was that They carried out 12,500 air strikes against uh Lebanon 360 of them uh were in Beirut and again the map you're looking at is the the most generous version um of the map in hasbalah statements they talked about so these are the first um the first line Villages that uh you heard being described for the first months of the war those are the first months first V first line Villages uh Israel said in the final two weeks that they were moving to the second line Villages hasbalah denies that they said that the second stage was merely a political and media announcement hasbalah said we have 300 defensive lines uh beyond the first line Villages um and they described hiam as the example um of the failure of the second um of the second line Villages for Israel to take they didn't take those Villages they are stuck on the border about one kilometer to two kilometers from the border uh not in villages um and not taking over The Villages until the ceasefire happened and now they're moving and encroaching into those Villages so um also this week Hezbollah released some operations from that took place before the ceasefire went into effect so let's take a look at some of those because um they're notable operations for uh this next period of um the post ceasefire or whatever this ceasefire we're going to uneven ceasefire um because these are drone operations if we look at number 20 um it'll also tell you that this operation took was on November 25th so this this is one day before the ceasefire and look where Israeli positions are they're literally on the border that that V video is pointing out a hole in the fence that had been uh uh just opened up and there's an excavator uh operating there and this is an alass top attack anti-tank guided missile this is this missile that the uh Iranians reverse engineered from uh a spike system that was captured by hezb in the 2006 war and some people noted uh that the New York times told you that that may exist that weapon may exist we've been reporting on it here for um like uh 10 12 months 11 and a half months um but even at the beginning when we were watching Almas uh top attack anti-tank guided missile strikes uh Israel said they that that's not what we were watching they have stopped doing that but um that that's the extent that they're willing to go that's the second excavator um the extent that Israel's uh military statements uh are going are willing to go to lie to you to tell you that you're not seeing something that you're seeing with your own eyes we talked about that last week when we saw the Drone being downed and Israel said the Drone wasn't downed because Hezbollah released it in a field report said a Hermes 450 elbet drone was downed and Israel said no it wasn't and then the next day Hezbollah released the video of the the elet Hermes 450 being shot down um so just a propaganda game G that I think people are aware that Israel is playing because they do it with every aspect of this entire conflict structurally lying about what has going on right since October 7th yeah number 21 is a an fpv drone strike which is I think uh interesting this is also the 25th the day before uh the ceasefire went into effect this video was released after the ceasefire in the week since you last saw me so I wanted to bring you these operations that we hadn't seen before uh because this is an ababil 2 drone this is a a stage up a step up uh fpv drone um from the shahad 101s that we see being used and here it is locking in on an m113 that is used behind um Israeli lines so this is over the Border behind the lines um and locks on um gives you a first-person view um and has obviously Target acquisition that you can see there um move into place pretty quickly and accurate hit the target those m113s we can look at the next one those m113s don't don't have any kind of trophy system but this is against a ner and this is one of the ways that I was monitoring uh this battle in Lebanon to see if Israel actually was carrying out a maneuver um was how many armored personnel carriers were being destroyed inside Lebanon if they were carrying out a massive mechanized uh Advanced there would be troop carriers uh in numbers but in the Hezbollah num this is the this is the first uh ner that we saw in the uh two-month stage of the battle and it's behind lines as you can see um again trophy system does not activate you can watch when it comes in the trophy's on the side it would pop up um even the Iron Fist you could see that it doesn't exist on this vehicle um so the uh the fpv drones these are one-way attack drones that explode um they're essentially uh guided missiles um and these These are weapons that would can be used uh with Precision um if there's going to be ceasefire violations back and forth in the coming weeks um as something to watch for because the drones will be used because of their accuracy this was over uh in yarin um and this one more just to show you here from an operation this is a tunnel fed operation and this is why they're not going to push the Israelis can't say that Hezbollah can't operate from the Lani they come down through that tunnel uh they prop it up with a stick here they emerge uh and they set up their drone uh launches and move through the bush so they're sheltered um and there's nothing Israel can do about this uh they they or unable to achieve on the battlefield The Taking of the major Villages that would uh that would prevent if you want to say uh Hezbollah from operating in this way which I I don't think they ever could do and that's why I was skeptical uh about Israel's intentions in South Lebanon because this is not uh they couldn't do it in 2006 they they're there's no way they could do it uh in 2024 and they showed that they showed that by pulling out um and basically essentially this operation is to secure the Border um but we've seen we've seen this all throughout the war I've shown you the Rockets from underground launchpads underground missile bases um which allow these rocket units to to both feed the munition and to launch them so there's no way 80% of hezbollah's rockets were destroyed it's just uh an absurd number we look at the next one we've got a couple Graphics here about the operation that I wanted to bring to you so um has both this Hezbollah marks the battle as 72 days they Mark the beginning of the battle as September 17th that was the day of the pager uh operation um and They carried out during this period 23 operations per day for a total of 1,666 military operations um they cited 130 killed 1250 wounded um the idf's numbers were not far off that um the IDF had claimed uh upwards of 75 and then they didn't count the 25 or 30 um you know civilian contractors that uh were working in the settlements so you essentially get the same number and just actually yesterday yester uh the Israelis released that They carried out 700 Medevac missions from medical evacuation medac missions from Lebanon um so 700 if there's two in uh the metac you get the same number so again Fidelity uh and honesty in the uh Hezbollah operations so they said they targeted 540 settlements uh across the north um 420 military points 21 bases and 14 seven border points um they confronted 31 advances so Israel attempted in 31 different places or 31 times often in the same place as we know in hiam they tried over and over again uh 31 advances in the 702 days so that doesn't seem like they had the stomach for a battle because that's uh one Advance every other day um and that's uh an indication that they didn't believe that they could break through hezb as lines they're just doing probing operations to try to see if they could uh move forward without their tanks getting hit their tanks get hit by anti-tank weapons that have a range of 5 to 10 kilometers away so that's one of the reasons why we don't see a ton of uh footage from the battle because um unlike Kasam and Gaza hitting with uh Yasin from 50 meters away with cameras on their heads uh you don't get very good imagery from a 6 kilometer distance um from their anti-tank weapons um enemy losses they say uh Hezbollah say 76 military vehicles 55 command centers 32 artillery positions weapons used 1285 rocket barges um that's rocket barges separate barges not weapons used and again they they talk about uh 93 artillery operations that's number of operations not number of Munitions used um they launched 66 drones in the 72 days they used 86 anti-tank dotted missiles which again indication um of that matches the enemy Vehicles 76 enemy vehicles um 86 anti-tank weapons used doesn't it doesn't seem like Israel was attempting um with their fragile exhausted Army um to push uh to to seriously push into Lebanon so now they're trying to achieve uh what they couldn't get in battle um in this ceasefire so we'll keep tracking that number 25 shows Israeli numbers this is how Israel does their numbers just 12 thou 12,000 uavs explosives and weapons it just gives you an idea even if this is their uh I mean we saw a lot of captured weapons um from Hezbollah forward positions um but it just gives you a sense of how massive uh hezbollah's Arsenal is if we're just talking 1 to two kilometers from the border and Israel saying that they they they captured 13,000 anti-tank missiles uh and Rockets gives you an idea because hasbalah is not built up to defend the Border they're built up to defend the Lani um and the lines before the Lani uh they have significant Firepower and and in the in the last slide here from Lebanon this is what Israel actually Targets this is from the Lebanese Public Health Emergency Operations Center um 3,961 people were killed by Israel 16520 wounded 250 of them children um and 1500 kids wounded um and of course the targeting of hospitals you see there ambulance centers 40 hospitals targeted 94 ambulance centers 251 ambulances um they killed 222 health workers and paramedics in double tap strikes where they bomb then they wait for the Emergency Personnel to show up and they hit it again which was a you know a target a tactic used by al-Qaeda in uh you know it's a it's a terror tactic to maximize civilian casualties that uh the Israelis use and that was that's really the outcome of of their battle in Lebanon is the targeting of the Health Care system and their inability to advance so we will continue to follow the ceasefire that is the resistance report from Lebanon and from Gaza and we will stay on top of the ceasefire uh and the battle going forward as we have up till now but that is this the resistance report [Music]